On Wednesday 24 November 24, 2021, Sussex Asia Centre of the of Sussex hosted director of Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS), Dr Davood Moradian to speak on situation of Afghanistan. Dr Moradian presented his remarks in the context of century-old process of state formation of the modern Afghan state. He identifies four forces as the main contending “state-builders”: The Constitutional and Progressive/Democratic constituencies; External Actors; Ethnic-nationalist and Islamists/clergies. The alliance, competition and conflict among these four forces have been driving both the Afghan conflict and the process of state formation in Afghanistan. AISS director highlighted the main features of the post 2001 constitutional order that was toppled on August 15, 2021: Conceptual coherence and acceptable level of domestic and external legitimacy were the main and positive aspects of the post 2001 political order, while Washington’s “permanent confusion” and Afghan elites’ disconnection with the Afghan people undermined the republican order. Dr Moradian described the changes after August 15, 2021, as “Politecide” in which every aspect of Afghan state and people have been adversely affected, including a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.  His concluding remarks addressed the potential forthcoming developments. He characterised the changes from “Pax Americana” to “Pax Pakistan” whereby Pakistan has replaced the US as the primary player in shaping the future of the country. According to Dr Moradian, Taliban’s vision for the country is to replicate Iran’s theocratic system by establishing a Sunni/Afghan version of Clerical led-theocratic system.  According to AISS director, Pakistan’s capacity to create “Greater Wazirstan” by incorporating Afghanistan into Pakistan’s tribal areas and Taliban’s vision to found a theocratic system will be competing with the reality of “Balkanization” of    Afghanistan.  AISS director recommended a “UN-led political process to bring together all key domestic and external stakeholders to explore different modalities for a sustainable, legitimate and inclusive constitutionally-based political system, in which externally Afghanistan is treated as a neutral state to be governed by a participatory democratic process reflecting the interests of all Afghanistan’s diverse communities”.  The discussion was moderated by the director of Sussex Asia Centre , professor Magnus Marsden.
The video of the presentation is available in below link:

https://youtu.be/w5dOJNx6hY8