By Abdul Naser Noorzad

I will dedicate this analysis to the question of why Haqqani is not the person we imagine him to be? And how the optimistic perception formed about him distorts and misleads the analysis beyond the future events in Afghanistan

Haqqani is an irreplaceable option in Pakistan’s calculations and trans-regional plans. The Haqqanis have long served Pakistan’s interests and have been aligned with America’s plans. This does not mean that other branches of the Taliban are exempt from this rule. No; all the Taliban and other political and jihadi groups that have achieved political presence in Afghanistan over the course of more than four decades have served colonial goals and interests. So, in this regard, there are no exceptions.

Haqqani is not a subversive and destructive factor in the Taliban regime to lead the rule of Haibatullah to collapse and downfall; Contrary to general wisdom, Haqqani is a ready-made leadership alternative for the post-Haybatullah phase. Because, finally, the game with the Haibatullah  will be over. Building a de facto alternative is a necessity for the Taliban project. This is contrary to our optimistic perceptions that Haqqani will overthrow the Haibatullah regime and himself will come to the scene as an alternative like Al-Jolani. No. Haqqani is a survivor of a highly ethnicized ideology full of prejudice and has no intention of overthrowing the Taliban’s mono-ethnic regime. Of course, the differences between the Pashtun ethnic branches such as the Durrani and the Ghilzai and the inherent conflicts within the Taliban are a separate issue that deserves a separate discussion which are mostly due to the conflict of interests in the area of power and wealth distribution. The clearest definition of Haqqani is that he is an important intelligence asset. He has special credibility with the managers of the bloody project in Afghanistan and has grown up in the clutches of intelligence games. His family has been shining brightly in the bloody and dangerous intelligence game for many years. Even since the Jihad, the Mujahideen government, the first resistance, the twenty-year presence of America and the second rule of the Taliban, the Haqqanis have been operating in a specific Chain of pawn in the circle of beyond region interests through Pakistan and the Arab countries.

In addition, the Haqqanis are a conduit for maintaining Pakistan's influence and the space based on the encroachment of Pakistan's rivals, including India, Iran and Central Asia, in Afghanistan. This factor makes the game very mature and measured with the Haqqanis card.

It must be acknowledged that the Haqqanis are a wall between the dangerous Pashtun alliance on both sides of the Durand Line to save Pakistan from the inevitable and conditional disintegration. It is also a buffer line between the Baloch alliance, which is located in Iran and Afghanistan and can be considered a threat to the sovereignty of Pakistan in the future.

Haqqani is Pakistan's strategic asset for influencing Afghanistan, maintaining balance in the big games on the Afghanistan axis, playing the ISIS card in this country, and countering the ambitious and unrealistic demands of the Durrani Pashtuns in line with the idea of creating a greater Pashtunistan. Also, the Haqqanis are considered a cash cow for the destructive plans of the Arabs in Afghanistan based on investing in extremist projects and a channel for the illegal trade of weapons from Afghanistan, drugs, and sheltering anti-security groups in the region. This influence of the Haqqanis has greatly helped to consolidate the position of this network and its leaders. In a sense, the Haqqanis are an obstacle to India, Iran, and Central Asia that does not represent anyone other than Pakistan. Even the death of Khalil Haqqani, the Taliban's Minister of Refugees, occurred as a result of his extensive contacts with the Chinese. An incident that almost faced serious obstacles to the project of disrupting security along the borders of China and Central Asia. It is rumored that he sold important and valuable information on the location, camps, and number of Uyghur commanders and personnel to the Chinese in exchange for money. This was, in fact, a terrible clash between the interests and goals of Pakistan and the region. Such a deviation from the Haqqani commitments to Pakistan and the region was tantamount to suicide, for which Khalil Haqqani paid the price. However, Sirajuddin Haqqani acts much more intelligently and under the complete management of Pakistan. Haqqani is a strategic asset serving the resources of the region and Pakistan. So, in no way, is it possible for him to make a stupid move that changes the rules of the game. That is, the Haqqani project, which will be a catalyst for creating a platform for ISIS Khorasan in Afghanistan, is completely and more carefully managed by Pakistan, and Pakistan has assured the supporters of this dangerous security program of its success. Therefore, strategic assets like the Haqqani never act against the rules of the game of their owners. The fictitious game of confrontation and tension between the Taliban and Pakistan does not in any way involve the Haqqani network. This is a fundamentally separate issue, which I will address in subsequent analyses.

Abdul Naser Noorzad was a lecturer at Kabul University. He has an MA in National Security Studies. He has written a couple of books about Afghanistan's security and political situation and has published dozens of articles in English, Persian, and Spanish. His research area includes security and politics.

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The article does not reflect the official opinion of the AISS.