By Luke Coffey

It is rare for anyone to be given a second chance in politics: for American presidents, it has happened only once before Donald Trump’s re-election. The only other US president to serve two non-consecutive terms was Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century.

This gives Trump a rare opportunity to reflect on past mistakes and learn from them to make better decisions in the future. Such an opportunity is with Afghanistan.

The chaotic and disorganized departure from Afghanistan in August 2021 remains a stain on US honor and prestige. It did not have to end that way. While President Joe Biden bears most of the responsibility, the story is incomplete without considering the role of the first Trump administration.

In February 2020, Trump agreed on a deal with the Taliban that set a date for the phased withdrawal of US forces by May 2021. This was the foundation for the collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power. Trump even went so far as to entertain the idea of inviting Taliban leaders to Camp David, though his advisers wisely convinced him to abandon it. Despite these missteps, one thing united Trump and Biden: their desire to exit Afghanistan, no matter the consequences. The Trump administration, with its deal, laid the groundwork for the disaster that followed under Biden.

Now, after securing a second term, Trump has the opportunity to correct course, learn from the past, and implement a more thoughtful and effective Afghanistan policy. Since the Taliban took over in 2021, Afghanistan has plunged into a severe economic and humanitarian crisis. Young girls are still banned from school, women have been pushed out of most workplaces, and the country has become a hotbed for transnational terrorist groups. Al-Qaeda has reestablished its presence and Daesh has gained strength, exploiting the security vacuum left by the Taliban.

The chaotic and disorganized departure from Afghanistan in August 2021 remains a stain on US honor and prestige.

Luke Coffey

With a new team in place, there is potential for the Trump administration to reevaluate and recalibrate. The nomination of Florida Congressman Mike Waltz as national security adviser signals a possible shift. Waltz, a former US special forces officer who served several tours in Afghanistan, has been one of the most vocal critics of Biden’s withdrawal. He has cultivated relationships with the National Resistance Front, a prominent Afghan opposition group led by Ahmad Massoud, and is keenly aware of the counterterrorism challenges posed by a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

The Trump administration has the opportunity to reengage with anti-Taliban forces and place greater emphasis on US national security interests. The first step should be formalizing communications with Massoud and his group, which is the most credible armed resistance to the Taliban but which the Biden administration has ignored. At the very least, the US should consider establishing a liaison office for the group in Tajikistan.

The US should also consider moving its diplomatic mission to Tajikistan from Qatar, where it decamped from Kabul after the Taliban takeover. While Qatar has been a key player in Taliban talks, a move to Tajikistan would bring American diplomats closer to both Afghanistan and the National Resistance Front. It would also reflect a broader strategy in Central Asia, prioritizing long-term stability and counterterrorism cooperation. At a minimum, the US should open a second diplomatic mission in Tajikistan while maintaining the one in Doha.

Another key area is the Vienna Process, a series of regular meetings of anti-Taliban groups led by the National Resistance Front with which the US has so far failed to engage. Trump’s administration should change that by sending a high-level representative to the next meeting. If it is willing to engage with Taliban representatives in Doha, it only makes sense to do so with the opposition groups too.

The US should also explore ways in which the National Resistance Front could advance counterterrorism objectives in Afghanistan. Neither the US nor its allies have invested in developing a relationship with the group. While the US has limited over-the-horizon strike capabilities in Afghanistan, the Front could be a valuable partner. Strengthening ties could offer operational advantages, particularly in the fight against Al-Qaeda and Daesh.

The Trump administration has the opportunity to reengage with anti-Taliban forces and place greater emphasis on US national security interests.

Luke Coffey

One area where the Biden administration has been correct is in its non-recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government. They desperately seek international legitimacy, which the US has rightly prevented. Trump should continue this policy, but more aggressively — freezing any potential funding from US sources that might benefit the Taliban, and ramping up sanctions against them.

These steps would mark a crucial shift in policy. They would improve counterterrorism efforts, safeguard geopolitical interests in South and Central Asia, and demonstrate a commitment to a moral and strategic alignment with credible Afghan partners. History shows that Afghanistan is too important to ignore. While it is unlikely that American troops will return in the immediate future, before 9/11 nobody predicted a US intervention. In such a scenario, a relationship with the Front would give the US a trusted local ally and a valuable insurance policy for the future.

Trump’s second term is a unique opportunity to correct the mistakes of the past and pursue a more coherent and effective Afghanistan strategy. It is time to move on from the chaotic withdrawal of 2021 and lay the groundwork for a more stable and secure Afghanistan in the future.

The article was first published in the Arab News on November 15, 2024.

Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute. His work at Hudson analyzes national security and foreign policy, with a focus on Europe, Eurasia, NATO, and transatlantic relations. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey

Academicians and Officials interested to publish their academic pieces on this page, please approach us through: contact@aissonline.org.

The article does not reflect the official opinion of the AISS.