By Syed Akhtar Ali Shah 

Three militants killed in an encounter in Malakand division; Balochistan CM condemns attacks on FC; two terrorists killed in Naurang; soldier martyred, three injured in blast in North Waziristan; four terrorists killed in encounter near Bahawalpur; two traffic policemen among five injured in Peshawar blast; two soldiers martyred in North Waziristan; retired SSG commando killed in encounter; soldier martyred in North Waziristan attack; seven terror suspects killed in two operations in K-P; officer martyred, 2 terrorists killed during security operation in DI Khan: ISPR; two terrorists killed in gun battle were TTP members: Langove; FIR of Quetta mosque bombing registered.

The above are few of the recent headlines from the newspapers amplifying the gravity of the landscape of terrorism.

Although independent sources such as AP also reported that terror attacks in Pakistan dropped by more than 85% as compared to figures 10 years ago, the problem is far from over. The figures indicated by the reports found that terror attacks dropped from nearly 2,000 in 2009 to fewer than 250 in 2019. Similarly, the United States Institute of Peace also expressed more or less the same views stating therein that the country continued to be grappling with multiple sources of internal and external conflict. While incidences of domestic terrorism have reduced, in part due to measures taken by the Pakistani state, extremism and intolerance of diversity has grown.

The South Asian Portal indicates that 136 incidents — featuring the killing of 142 civilians, 137 security forces personnel as well as eight terrorists — took place in the year 2019. As compared to 2019, with figures till October 1, 2020, where the incidents of killing accounted for 140, which included the killing of 112 civilians, 140 security forces personnel and 124 terrorists.

Even though the aforementioned figures and events have occurred in different parts of the country at different times, they are not to be taken in isolation. These are not the acts of isolated individuals or of a specific gang but are orchestrated by well-organised networks possessing enormous resources. As such, thorough analysis is needed to diagnose and solve the issue.

The current incidents of terrorism are the offshoots of militancy of two different dimensions; one propelled by ethno-nationalism and the other by religious militancy. The focus of this discourse is more on the religiously motivated militancy. This breed of militancy is of transnational character, drawing inspiration not only from local leaders but also across borders. Therefore, the developments within our region and the Middle East cannot be delinked. The stronger the Taliban get in Afghanistan, the greater will be the impact on militant organisations within Pakistan, as such organisations have been drawing their inspirational support from Mullah Umar and Tehreek-i-Taliban Afghanistan.

Reports from various sources suggest that Al Qaeda has not been completely eliminated and is still operative. Analysts of international repute have not been able to certify whether the Taliban have cut their ties with Al Qaeda or provided demonstrable proof of doing so. The UN reports of 2019 and May 2020 also suggest that the Taliban met frequently and remained in contact with Al Qaeda to coordinate “operational planning, training and the provision by the Taliban of safe havens for Al Qaeda members inside Afghanistan”. This aspect is also quite worrying from the Pakistani perspective.

Afghanistan has observed an escalation in the level of violence since the inking of the Doha agreement between the US and the Taliban. During the talks, the Taliban had been adamant that they would not stop violence and go ahead with their jihad till an eventual takeover of Kabul and the government based on the strict interpretation of Sharia. The past experiences have shown that negotiations have been used as tools to capture power. The Taliban in Pakistan and other militant organisations also harp on the same theory.

The strategic goal of the militant organisation is to establish the Islamic Emirate with no scope for pluralism. The word of the caliph or ameer in such a polity assumes finality. Such groups avoid facing the organised might of the state, and making tactical retreats whenever military operations are launched. They remain at bay, gain time and space, regroup and then strike with regular intervals in order to preserve their human resource, while still remaining effective.

In this backdrop, the recent organisational restructuring of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan under the leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud — who has political exposure and is considered a religious scholar, ideologue and author of a book — is quite alarming. Reportedly, rather than being carried away by short-lived tactical dividends, he adopted a long-term plan, using all his energies on a strategic reorientation of the group.

The major focus of Wali has remained on re-articulating TTP’s ideological orientation. He has simultaneously issued a code of conduct to infuse organisational discipline within the terror group. Ever since, the organisation is regularly circulating a propaganda magazine, Mujallah Taliban, to highlight the group’s position on different issues. The TTP also got published two issues of Sunnat-e-Khaula, a magazine focusing on female recruitment and radicalisation in Pakistan.

In this context, a current UN report has suggested that there were 6,000 to 6,500 TTP militants in Afghanistan. This number, along with the aforementioned mergers as well as dormant supporters within Pakistan poses a serious threat to our security. This also means that militant organisations are still capable of recruitment, training and execution, and an imminent counter-terrorism challenge to Pakistan. It also raises question marks on our efforts to exhibit zero tolerance against extremism leading to violence. It is high time for us to implement all the 20 points of the National Action Plan, lest it is late and we have to pay a higher price.

The article was first published in The Express Tribune, October 8th, 2020.

The writer is a former secretary to Government Home and Tribal Affairs and a retired IG. He holds a PhD in Political Science and currently heads a think tank ‘Good Governance Forum’.

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