By Abdul Saboor Sitez

Recently, the Middle East and South Asia have witnessed coalitions of terrorist groups to overthrow governments, in which Islamist terrorist groups have succeeded in overthrowing national governments by forming transnational alliances.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, which was carried out with the cooperation of numerous extremist, extremist, and terrorist groups, is a clear example of these developments. This event has many similarities to the fall of the Afghan government by the Taliban. These two incidents illustrate a dangerous pattern for extremist groups that can come together from different countries with different long-term goals in a single geopolitical landscape and form short-term coalitions to achieve their goals by exploiting the structural weaknesses of states.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban succeeded in overthrowing the government by forming an informal coalition with groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Al-Qaeda, the Sipah-e-Sahaba, East Turkestan, and extremist groups from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Although these groups differ significantly in ideology, interests, and nationality, they united against the legitimate Afghan government. Using this coalition, the Taliban brought in foreign fighters on the one hand and exploited security gaps and public discontent on the other.

This approach made them an inspiring model for other extremist groups. The Taliban, who consider themselves indebted to terrorist groups for this reason, have now given them shelter in Afghanistan and support them. The widespread presence of various terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda, TTP, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkestan, etc., is meaningful in this regard.

Numerous credible reports about the Taliban’s support for other terrorist groups that had cooperated with this group in the war against the Afghan government have been prepared and published by the media and international organizations, including the United Nations.

In Syria, radical Islamist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda, and Ahrar al-Sham used the same tactics. Despite differences in their ultimate goals, these groups were able to unite in a short time to overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad. Like the Taliban regime, they also attracted fighters from all over the Islamic world using transnational networks. Interestingly, some of these fighters were sent to Syria from Afghanistan, A matter that evidence can be seen in numerous reports. Many videos of these people who went to Syria from Pakistan and Afghanistan and fought against the government of Bashar al-Assad have been published on social networks.

They do not hide their identity and speak Pashto. Even the Taliban flag was waved in some areas of Syria. This indicates the Taliban’s ideological support for these coalitions and the proximity of terrorist groups.

This connection was not limited to the battlefield.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban celebrated the fall of the Assad government in areas such as Nangarhar, Paktia, Logar, and Laghman. This action communicated the Taliban’s ideological solidarity with other radical Islamist groups. Although the various Taliban factions were not directly involved in the war against the Syrian government, their similar approaches to forming coalitions, dominating strategic areas, and overthrowing governments cannot be a coincidence.

The fall of governments by such coalitions has profound and far-reaching consequences.

In Afghanistan, this event has fueled extremism and political instability and exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. This extremism has destroyed many lives and has targeted the future of the entire society.

The closure of schools and universities to women and the denial of their right to work and freedom of movement are some of the consequences of religious extremism in Afghanistan that the Taliban have imposed since the fall of the government.

Similarly, this group has targeted specific ethnic groups within Afghanistan, who are subjected to the Taliban’s cruelty and oppression simply because they belong to a particular ethnicity. On the other hand, military fronts against the Taliban are already active, and the fire of war is raging in the country. Just last night, the Freedom Front alone carried out three attacks in Kapisa, Kabul, and Herat against the Taliban regime, which resulted in more than 10 deaths and injuries. Similarly, the National Resistance Front carried out two attacks in Kabul and Faryab. This situation has created terrible uncertainty about the future of the country, which cannot be accurately predicted, a problem that has distanced society from stability and deprived citizens of the power to plan.

In Syria, however, this collapse will lead to the formation of a widespread civil war. Although the geographical, social, and political conditions of Syria and Afghanistan are different, the consequences arising from them indicate the common threat of transnational terrorism. In Syria, the possibility of catching fire from sectarian war is more significant than anything else. Because the rebels opposing the Assad government openly mentioned killing Shiites and called them Rafidis in the videos they released during the attack, now that they are in power and religious extremism is their spice, they cannot refrain from harassing Shiites, something that will sooner or later ignite a sectarian war in a country that has been governed for decades by a secular dictatorial order.

On the other hand, these events have become a dangerous model for other terrorist groups. The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan and extremist groups in Syria has shown them that short-term and flexible coalitions can be an effective tool for achieving the political and military goals of terrorist and extremist groups.

This model can be easily repeated, especially in areas where governments are weak or ineffective.

Therefore, the international community must be vigilant about the threat of this model.

Terrorist groups not only threaten the internal stability of countries, but their instability can also fuel regional and global crises. International cooperation is essential to prevent such scenarios from recurring. Strengthening security structures, combating terrorist financing, and putting pressure on terrorist groups, instead of what was implemented in the last three years in the name of “engagement” with the Afghan Taliban, can put these groups in a difficult position. Similarly, governments that use terrorist groups as a tool to achieve their short-term strategic goals should be pressured by the international community.

Ultimately, terrorist groups have adopted a new way of fighting that requires a new strategy and perspective to confront. It is not possible to engage new terrorist coalitions with the old definition of the phenomenon of terrorism. A more accurate understanding of terrorists and the tools they have at their disposal will make it more possible to combat them.

Abdul Saboor Sitez is a writer and expert on International Relations. His articles have appeared in publications, such as: Hasht - e - Subh, Etilaat Roz, Subh - e - Kabul, Afghan Women's Voices, Zan - e Rooz.

Academicians and Officials interested to publish their academic pieces on this page, please approach us through: contact@aissonline.org

The article does not reflect the official opinion of the AISS.