By: Abdul Naser Noorzad

To begin, it is important to note that Afghanistan is surrounded by four security belts or zones from the north, east, south, and west—each imposing specific security dynamics upon the country. But broadly speaking, regardless of geographic distance, the Iran-Israel confrontation is likely to draw in powerful global actors into this dangerous security game. In this context, Afghanistan remains one of the most suitable grounds for these actors to challenge one another.

One might ask: How can Afghanistan, under Taliban control and amid heavy intelligence presence by the U.S. and its Asian allies, still be an open field for Iran-Israel rivalries?

The answer lies in the fact that Afghanistan's fragile security situation and the presence of multiple actors with conflicting interests ensure that the country remains relevant in new regional security dynamics, especially in the current confrontation between Israel and Tehran. This is not just about a single issue or subject, but involves geography, actors, objectives, and rules of the game. From a broader deterrence strategy to cultural and hegemonic influence, each factor plays a role in reshaping the Iran-Israel confrontation.

Any escalation of tensions between the two could heighten intelligence competition, activate proxy groups, and potentially turn Afghanistan into a covert proxy battlefield. And that is precisely the scenario where, in the absence of a strong state, the Afghan people once again bear the cost of geopolitical rivalries. We've seen this in the past, when Afghanistan’s unfortunate geography became the main battleground for similar power struggles.

A comparable situation unfolded in South Asia when the intense rivalry between India and Pakistan led the latter—with strong U.S. backing—to support the Taliban and radical Islamist insurgency to limit India’s strategic maneuvering in Afghanistan. This culminated in the fall of the republic and the Taliban's return to power.

A similar scenario is now conceivable between Israel and Iran, especially when this confrontation could evolve into a structural conflict, not just a temporary crisis. This means regional and global actors may align themselves based on their vital security interests—either on the side of Tehran or Tel Aviv.

From a security analysis perspective, the Iran-Israel conflict is not just a temporary or event-driven crisis; rather, it's a structural confrontation rooted in geo-strategic and ideological fault lines. These two players stand on opposite ends of the Middle Eastern order. Both seek to leverage the current environment to expand their strategic alliances.

Iran previously relied on the so-called "Resistance Axis"—a Shiite geopolitical arc for deterrence. However, with the Gaza crisis, targeted killings of Hamas leaders, pressure on Assad in Syria, intensified attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and heavy bombings on the Houthis in Yemen, Iran has lost parts of this strategic deterrence ring. Iran used this axis not only to pressure Israel and the West but also to gain leverage in broader international negotiations.

Meanwhile, Asian allies like Russia and China, despite differing stances on Iran’s role in global oil markets, used Iran's influence to challenge the West at times. Iran leveraged this Shiite arc to counter the West, the Arabs, and Turkey through hegemonic influence and deterrence. Even in Afghanistan, this arc had cells that posed challenges to Western-oriented security dynamics.

On the other hand, Israel, with strong Western (especially American) backing, has been trying to neutralize Iran’s influence. From the Gaza crisis to the effort to topple Assad, suppress Hezbollah, and pressure Iraq to marginalize Tehran-aligned groups, Israel has been strategically aligned with the U.S. and its European allies.

Israel’s policy aims to structurally contain Iran’s ideological and regional influence—not just preparing for war, but actively trying to weaken Tehran. Israel has built intelligence coalitions with agencies like India’s RAW, Pakistan’s ISI, Azerbaijan’s security agency, and even Turkey’s MIT to restrict Iran’s maneuverability.

The Iran-Israel confrontation could potentially expand to encompass a broad geography of the “Resistance Axis”—from Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Now, under Taliban control, how could Afghanistan become a victim of this new and dangerous geopolitical rivalry?

Here are some potential factors that could negatively affect Afghanistan:

Provoking ethnic and sectarian tensions.
Encouraging Salafi extremist groups hostile to Tehran.
Aligning more closely with India, Turkey, Azerbaijan, the U.S., and even Pakistan to reduce and neutralize Iran’s cultural, political, linguistic, and geopolitical influence in Afghanistan.
Iran, however, also possesses potential capabilities inside Afghanistan. It could use anti-Taliban groups, Fatemiyoun, Zainabiyoun, and Hazara networks against Israeli interests. Simultaneously, increased Israeli intelligence operations in the region would complicate the situation further. Even the Taliban regime itself may begin to crack under the pressure of competing regional agendas.

Given Afghanistan’s governance vacuum and weak intelligence control, groups like Fatemiyoun, Zainabiyoun, Al-Qaeda, or even ISIS-K could use Afghanistan as a haven or base for operations against Iran or Israel.

Since Iran sees Afghanistan as geopolitically and economically significant, Israel and its allies might attempt to undermine Iran’s influence through:

Economic proxy warfare
Infrastructure sabotage
Provoking local instability
Iran has repeatedly threatened to target U.S. bases in the region. Should such threats materialize, it would draw the great powers even deeper into the Iran-Israel confrontation. Russia and China, opportunistic as ever, may support Iran’s intelligence warfare to challenge the U.S., yet they wouldn't want Iran to gain too much. For China, Iran’s sanctioned oil is a strategic asset. For Russia, Iran’s reentry into global markets would be a threat to its energy dominance.

Afghanistan may also be used by Israel and its allies to increase pressure on Iran:

Supporting anti-Iranian radicals
Encouraging Baloch separatists
Empowering ISIS
Bringing the Taliban closer to the West through new recognition agreements
These actions would place Iran in a tough spot. In response, Tehran may:

Use the Shiite card (cultural, linguistic, sectarian influence)
Support scattered anti-Taliban resistance
Draw closer to China and Russia—even at a cost
Iran also holds another potential card: the presence of many former Afghan military, police, and intelligence personnel who fled to Iran after the republic's collapse. These individuals could be transformed into a proxy force serving Tehran’s security interests and resisting Western, Israeli, or Turkish agendas.

Ultimately, any instability in the surrounding security systems of Afghanistan will negatively impact the country. If the Taliban faces increased pressure from the U.S., they may yield to Israeli-American security designs—possibly with Turkey, India, and Arab support. While Iran has tried to engage the Taliban through intelligence cooperation over the past three years, concessions only empower the group further.

In the end, Afghanistan remains the victim of an absent strong state and a collapsing regional order. Whether the Taliban bends to Western pressure or Iran gains the upper hand through resistance, the Afghan people remain the ultimate losers.

Abdul Naser Noorzad was a lecturer at Kabul University. He has an MA in National Security Studies. He has written a couple of books about Afghanistan's security and political situation and has published dozens of articles in English, Persian, and Spanish. His research area includes security and politics.

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The article does not reflect the official opinion of the AISS.