Media Coverage
Speech by Dr. Rangin Dadfar Spanta at the 1st “Sussex Afghanistan Forum”
Professors,
Students,
Dear Guests,
My dear fellow Citizens,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is a great honor to speak to this distinguished audience. To begin with I would like to thank the organizers, particularly Professor Adam Tickell, Professor Magnus Marsden and their colleagues. Special thanks to Dr. Moradian and his colleagues of the Afghanistan Institute of Strategic Studies. I also would like to express my gratitude for your warm hospitality and perfect organization of this event.
Dear Friends,
Afghanistan’s recent history Illustrates a bleak picture of devastation and despair and at the same time hope and enthusiasm. This ambivalent situation reflects the social structures and socio-political relationships present in todays’ Afghanistan. Allow me to outline the emergence of these paradoxes along with the main causes and point out their causalities.
Why did the initial optimism and the vigorous start of the reconstruction, democratization and state-building in the last 17 years turn into pessimism and exhaustion? Currently many factors indicate a stagnation, if not a failure, of development. It is vital to understand the mistakes and inappropriate strategies and policies that contributed to the emergence of the current situation.
As you know, in order to win an asymmetrical war, among others the following conditions must be fulfilled:
1. It is widely known that a government which is fighting guerrilla groups needs the active support and the political loyalty of its population. For example, the US Army’s 2006 Counterinsurgency Manual defines victory in a counterinsurgency as being achieved “…when the populace consents to the government’s legitimacy and stops actively and passively supporting the insurgency.”
2. To be seen as legitimate and establish its credibility and public acceptance, the government must be capable of protecting the lives of its population and provide public goods and services. The government must also be able to implement the principles of rule of law and justice and provide an environment that is conducive to political participation.
The governing of a state should promote the prosperity and the general well-being of its entire population, strengthen its internal consensus, and enhance social as well as political relationships. Good governance can prevent and manage social, ethnic and religious divisions and conflict in a proper manner.
Keeping the above-mentioned criteria in mind, over the last few years the official politics of Afghanistan not only have shown serious deficits but have further deepened mistrust and have worsened ethnic and social fragmentation.
The Taliban, on the other hand, have been strengthened because of the weakness of the state and the reduced loyalty of the population towards the state. The pervasive increases of security threats and protracted conflicts have overshadowed the social and reconstruction engagement for waging the war in the country.
The forces involved in an asymmetric war against state should not be able to engage the population for their goals or treat them as opponents. But that is exactly what has happened in Afghanistan.
The failing of the state has been accompanied with the success of the Taliban in recent years. The primitive disputed but effective and transparent justice system implemented by the Taliban courts in some regions of the country have more public acceptance when compared to the corrupt and dysfunctional justice system of the state.
The longer the war continues the more the Afghan population loses faith in achieving the goals of democracy, rule of law, positive peace and stability provided by the government and their allies. Seventeen years of war, bombardment, arbitrary arrest, night raids, disrespect for the traditions of the local population contributes to a certain level empathy and solidarity with the Taliban.
Subsequently, countryside areas without the control of government, so called “legal vacuums” which have been administered by the Taliban have increased. The inevitable result of this development has led to a dismantling of state rule in these areas.
Furthermore, corruption, nepotism, narco-trafficking, allocation of international reconstruction contracts to a specific corrupt group of individuals, companies affiliated whit the international aid agencies has resulted in the emergence of a powerful group further damaging the system of accountability and transparency.
These all irregularities have contributed immensely to the decline of the state. As a result, a shadow and war economy has developed, and the promise of a developing state has been increasingly damaged in the eyes of the public, subsequently on the Grund.
3. In order to win an asymmetric war, the elimination, or at least the significant decrease, of the safe havens, international financial networks for terrorist Groupes, recruitment possibilities, and training camps, etc. of them are prerequisites for success. In the Afghanistan conflict, unfortunately, the opposite has been happening.
It is now beyond dispute that the Taliban have their sanctuaries, safe havens, financing networks as well as training and recruitment camps in Pakistan. The international community did not sanction Pakistan over the past 17 years but rather has provided billions of Dollars for its military and intelligent sector.
The Afghan demands for smart sanctions, like sanction against Pakistani diplomats, Generals and intelligence officials, who obviously support terrorism, has been denied in many instances.
The Unites States’ leadership and the other western state wanted to convince us that Pakistan is a strategic ally in the war against International terrorism. Even some western government officials have bluntly asked us to shape our foreign and security policy and relations in a manner that are acceptable to Pakistan.
Whit other words recognizing veto rights for Pakistan over Afghanistan’s security and foreign policy.
4. It is well known that not just holding of elections, but regular, free and fair elections are part, parcel and precondition of a democracy. The manipulation of the elections in Afghanistan through massive fraud and systematic interference has destroyed the population’s trust in democracy. The Afghan elites as well as foreign diplomats were involved in this organized violation of the free expression of the will of the people. Furthermore, both groups, in close cooperation, have contributed to the intensified ethnicisation of politics resulting in further fragmentation of the people across ethnic lines.
5. The illegal invasion of Iraq by the USA and the UK in 2003 damaged the Afghanistan project enormously.
The illusion at the time was that the success in Afghanistan will be irreversible and the introduced democratic wave in Iraq will embrace the entire Middle East (West Asia) and the Socio-political self-blockade of the Arab world will be dissolved, But the results of this invasion were irreversibly destructive and caused radical upheavals of the Islamists and intensified and reinforced widespread violence and armed insurgencies. This miscalculation reduced the attention of international community to Afghanistan, resulting in Pakistan’s further interference in Afghanistan’s affairs.
6. Furthermore, with the constant demise of the American era and the rise of the new regional as well as global hegemonic powers the regional and international consensus broke in Afghanistan. Russia, China and Iran who were cooperating with the international community in Afghanistan became opponents, which provided the ground for the break-down of Taliban isolation from the international community.
7. The project of democratizing Afghanistan in its initial framework was an effort without the inclusion of democrats.
As it is well known, democracy is a product of struggle of democrats and the result of social interaction.
As a process it does not only seek the true participation of the people, but it also presumes the consistent willingness for the protection, expansion and consolidation of values and institutions.
But what we have experienced in Afghanistan has been an enforced democracy, a democracy without democrats which I have in 2012 mentioned as a destructive democracy. A democracy without a democratic culture to promote active engagement of its members of its respective society is not viable.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Despite this negative evaluation, today’s Afghanistan is in many aspects different from the Afghanistan of twenty years ago.
The change in Afghan Society is in process which is taking place at a significant pace within the society. Millions of Afghans are attending educational institutions of the country, thousands of women and men have graduated from universities, thousands of women are studying and working actively and taking part in society.
Millions are now experiencing and living in a different society compared to the Afghanistan of 20 years ago.
The urban populations for a variety of reasons has increased, and hundreds of thousands of Afghans are living abroad.
Hundreds of TV and Radio Stations and print media are shaping the vibrant communication aspect of life of the country which ultimately will cause positive changes in the people’s thinking and acting processes.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The current efforts of the USA and the other countries, despite all shortcomings, is leading towards peace and development in Afghanistan.
As a result, the current political power relations will change too. There may be major setbacks in the areas of human rights, women’s rights, political and social rights and freedom.
But this conflict must be managed or better resolved as forty years of protracted war has resulted in the loss of hundred thousands of lives and immense sufferings. We all must pull our strength together to end this conflict, and meanwhile continue our struggle to support freedom and human rights in a peaceful post-conflict situation.
Moderate reform-oriented groups in Afghanistan may be losing a part of the hard-won gains of the last 17 years. This setback which we are now experiencing from the resurgence of the Taliban and the withdrawal of the reform forces seems to be becoming real.
But the social and political potential for overcoming the self-imposed obstruction of the progress of the people and building a democratic society have never been as promising in Afghanistan’s history as it appears now.
In the medium term I am convinced we will see a dynamic process which will democratize my country and I will invest all my hope in this. Your encouragement and support are much appreciated.
Thank you very much for your attention